Climate Shift: Challenges for Water Management

Illinois, including the NWPA region, is getting warmer and wetter. Warmer air holds more water, causing rain to arrive in short, intense bursts. Illinois State Climatologist Dr. Trent Ford, who presented at the July 22nd NWPA Technical Advisory Committee meeting, cautioned that these changes create new water management challenges.

Facing the Future

Rain patterns outpace data collection and analysis
A warmer, wetter water cycle increases regional variation in climate conditions. Some areas see above-average precipitation while others receive below-average amounts, making existing rainfall data less reliable for local planning. Regional monitoring sites, such as the Illinois Climate Network (ICN), can miss community-level differences, and even local observations may not capture short, intense storms.

Rain isn’t always available when and where it’s needed
Climate models predict a warmer, wetter Illinois, but soil moisture is harder to forecast. Warmer temperatures increase evaporation, so more rain doesn’t always mean wetter soils, and may not alleviate drought conditions. Dry soils absorb less water, increasing runoff and limiting rainfall benefits. Even when July 2025 brought above-average rain after a dry spring, local storms may not fully offset earlier dryness. This reduced effective precipitation makes it harder to predict when and where water will be available
 
More rain doesn’t guarantee more groundwater recharge 
Warmer air and more intense rain mean soils absorb less water, increasing runoff and reducing groundwater recharge, especially in shallow aquifers. Groundwater levels in the NWPA region, including DeKalb, St. Charles, and Crystal Lake, remain below normal. Falling water tables can lower well yields and stress local ecosystems
 
Heavy rain both hurts and helps: flood risks and river recovery
Intense rain increases surface runoff. While it helps streams recover after dry spells, it also raises flood risk. After a spring of below-normal streamflow, increased rainfall helped the Fox River return to normal flow. These trends highlight the challenge of developing integrated strategies that reduce flooding while maintaining ecological flows.
 
The future won’t look like the past
Climate forecasts have traditionally assumed stationarity. Stationarity is the idea that past trends, including the magnitude and frequency of extreme events, can predict the future. But extreme events, including rain, are now more frequent and intense, so Illinois must account for non-stationarity. This means shifting climate patterns must be considered when forecasting. It is no longer sufficient to rely on past statistics to guide water management and plan for climate change impacts.

From Science to Solutions
Dr. Ford’s team is helping communities manage climate uncertainty with improved modeling, an urban drought early warning system, and a web-based future climate information portal to visualize local climate extremes. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions is also essential. CMAP and partners are creating a Comprehensive Climate Action Plan for Greater Chicago, while water manager, as noted in the NWPA Water Supply Sustainability Plan (WSSP), can work to improve energy and water efficiency.

Effective water management solutions go beyond engineering, integrating insights from ecology and other disciplines. Illinois Groundwork is one example of a program that takes this approach. Individual and community engagement is also key. Programs like the Illinois Extension Climate Stewards train residents to tackle climate change locally, and simple at-home actions, such as installing smart irrigation systems, can save residents water and energy.

Stay up to date with Dr. Trent Ford, here and follow Weather Realness: Illinois Weather and Climate podcast.